The blockchain economy currently exceeds $100 billion in market valuation. That is a 1000% increase in just the last year which many are thinking represents a bubble that is about to burst.
However, Yannick Roux In his post “On Tokens Value” outlines a formula to support a potential blockchain economy value of up to $100 trillion! That would be another 1000% increase from where we are today.
That won’t happen without Trust, and in his book, “The Business Blockchain,” William Mougayar identifies Trust as the dial-tone of the blockchain. But what he means is trust in the blockchain. There is zero identity trust on the blockchain (at this point by design) – and what we mean by that is there is no knowledge of who the participants in the blockchain are – beyond their public key. It is anonymous.
For the blockchain to continue to grow at this pace – three things have to happen:
- It must be easier to understand. In the early days of the internet – the promise was enormous – and it wasn’t too complex to understand it. This has the same or greater promise, but blockchain is still extremely complex to understand. What needs to happen is for companies to mask the complexities of blockchain so people can reap the benefits without having to get a PhD in Blockchain Wyre is one example of a company that has successfully accomplished this. They do wire transfers better, faster, cheaper than traditional banks. That’s really all you need to know – they run on blockchain as a “how” they do it – but customers don’t have to know, or care. More companies need to have a simple message about what they do for us without mentioning that blockchain is the “how” for them.
- There need to be some success stories to calm the ICO craziness. ICOs are out of control right now. China banned them because there were so many scams. Tezos and Civic are among the darlings of the ICO world at the moment. We need someone to emerge who has had a successful ICO who can show people they are a real business that knows what they are doing.
- Industries like banks and healthcare must participate. There are an almost limitless number of use cases in healthcare and banking for the blockchain. There is a simple way to unlock many of those use cases. Identity trust. There will always be a use and a value in anonymous activities on the blockchain – but the yang to that yin is that some use cases don’t work unless you know who you are dealing with. That’s not just “do you have my personally identifiable information” – it’s if you say you are Robert Scoble, how do I know you are the real Robert Scoble? This requires taking photos of a government ID (and making sure it’s real and valid and present) and doing the same with a selfie and matching the two. That solves the regulatory requirements of banking (KYC/AML) and healthcare (there are many).
We mentioned Civic earlier – we think they have done a lot of the upfront work to make identity validation relevant, and that was critical. The company that moves the needle on all three of the above points is AuthenticID. Our Smart Identity Platform provides Identity Trust an important utility layer for the blockchain that perhaps positions AuthenticID to be a key contributor to enabling blockchain applications that improve the way the world gets things done – while bringing Trust back to the Internet.
To ensure it happens, our platform is based upon a decade of document forensics experience that has made us an industry leader as well as our numerous 40+ issued patent Claims that envisioned a decade ago our Smart Identity platform that we are introducing today.
The path to $100 trillion will follow like most markets – 80% of the valuation typically attributes to 20% of the participants. That means that the lofty potential of another 1000% growth will include participants contributing 0% and those that will contribute multiples of 1000% valuation growth.
Those companies that will provide fundamental utility core services – like what Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have done for the World Wide Web – will probably be part of the 20% that contribute the bulk of the value. AuthenticID aims to be part of that group.
So how can the blockchain economy possibly reach such a stratospheric valuation?
Blockchain is compared to the World Wide Web in that it is a new technology layer that sits on top of the Internet. Tim Berners-Lee, the founder of the World Wide Web has initiated a Web Impact study to evaluate the % impact that the World Wide Web has had to the global $80 trillion GDP, now 20 years since its inception. That number is probably somewhere in the 20%-30% range today, representing an estimated $20 trillion in annual impact, as well as perhaps $50+ billion in valuation when considering its impact percentage to the global market valuation for all businesses that Yannick Roux estimates to be $200 trillion.
However, it has been said that the key technical attributes of the blockchain will perhaps have a 2-3 times impact of those of the World Wide Web, so perhaps that $100 trillion potential blockchain economy valuation is not so far off.
So, start thinking about how your business will be impacted by blockchain technology. Reach out to me if you want to brainstorm.